economy
April 7, 2026
Middle East conflict could trigger Africa cost of living crisis and slow growth
Report warns Middle East conflict may raise food and fuel prices in Africa, disrupt trade and slow growth across the continent
TL;DR
- Middle East conflict poses risks of rising living costs and slowed economic growth in Africa.
- Disruptions to shipping routes, energy, and fertilizer supplies could intensify trade shocks.
- Higher fuel, food, shipping, and insurance costs, along with exchange rate pressures, may lead to a cost-of-living crisis.
- Reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could impact ammonia and urea production, increasing fertilizer costs.
- Extended conflict (over six months) could reduce Africa's GDP growth by 0.2% by the end of 2026.
- Nigeria and Mozambique may see benefits from higher oil prices and renewed LNG activity.
- Rerouting shipping could boost operations in South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius.
- Kenya could strengthen its role as a logistics hub, and Ethiopia could leverage its air cargo position.
- South Africa has temporarily cut fuel levies to mitigate rising global energy prices.
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