March 4, 2026
Managing chaos: The Iranian regime is surviving without a hierarchical leadership structure — for now
As a result of the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran, a significant part of Tehran’s ruling elite was killed. The list of deceased senior officials includes the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. Security measures introduced after the Twelve-Day War in the summer of 2025 proved insufficient. At the same time, despite serious losses and destruction, Iran continues to carry out retaliatory strikes. The IRGC, one of the leading military forces of the Islamic Republic, developed protocols for decentralized activity even before the current war broke out, and it now stands as the most resilient structure of Iranian power. At the same time, the regime faces not only external enemies, but also an active domestic opposition and various ethnic insurgents. Under these conditions, the most likely scenario for Iran’s immediate future is not the establishment of a democratic system, but chaos brought about by the collapse of the state, according to Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
TL;DR
- A surprise strike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, head of the Revolutionary Guards, and the Minister of Defence, highlighting security vulnerabilities.
- The IRGC has effectively taken control of state functions and transitioned to a decentralized, autonomous operational mode to counter targeted attacks.
- Iran has launched retaliatory missile strikes against Gulf states and is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz to create a regional crisis.
- The regime faces internal threats from rebel forces and potential anti-regime elements, while its 'Axis of Resistance' partners have shown limited support.
- The most likely outcome for Iran's immediate future is chaos and state collapse, rather than the establishment of a democratic system.
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