economy
April 7, 2026
Moody’s cuts India GDP forecast to 6% amid Iran conflict risks
Moody’s cut India’s 2026-27 GDP forecast to 6% from 6.8%, warning that the Iran conflict may raise inflation and slow growth
TL;DR
- Moody's has lowered India's GDP forecast for 2026-27 to 6% from 6.8%.
- The ongoing war in Iran is cited as the primary reason for the revised projection.
- The conflict is expected to moderate growth momentum and increase inflation risks in India.
- Potential impacts include near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and increased food inflation due to reliance on imported fertilizers.
- India imports a significant portion of its crude oil and LPG from the Middle East.
- Moody's projects inflation to average 4.8% in FY27, up from 2.4% in the previous year.
- The Reserve Bank of India is likely to hold or gradually increase policy rates due to re-emerging inflation risks.
- Subdued private consumption, softer industrial activity, elevated prices, and higher input costs are also noted as contributing factors.
Continue reading the original article