politics
February 6, 2026
Dmitry Trenin: Strategic stability now rests on fear
Arms control is finished, now comes the real nuclear order
TL;DR
- The START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, marking a symbolic end to Russian-American nuclear arms control.
- Geopolitical changes, including nuclear multipolarity and advanced conventional weapons, have rendered old arms control agreements less relevant.
- The US's strategic objectives in the Ukraine conflict revealed the limitations of the old arms control framework.
- The expiration of START raises concerns about a new nuclear arms race, despite the fact that nuclear forces of other nations were never constrained by such treaties.
- Strategic stability in the 21st century depends on reducing incentives for major powers to fight, not just on bilateral parity or weapon ceilings.
- A comprehensive solution to the current strategic puzzle involving multiple nuclear states is unlikely.
- Achieving stability requires sustained dialogue, transparency, communication channels, and mechanisms to prevent unintended clashes.
- Credible nuclear deterrence, including sufficient arsenals and the readiness to use them, remains the foundation of peace among nuclear powers.