Economy

Into the shadows: Sanctions have reduced Russia from an oil superpower to a global energy disrupter

After four years of strict financial and technological sanctions, Russia’s share in global oil production has fallen from 12% to 11% and in overall trade from 13% to 11%. The drop may look small, but it is not the quantity but the quality that has changed most. Russia has completely lost its status as an oil superpower. Whereas Moscow once set the terms, it now plays by rules imposed on it, explains Tatiana Mitrova, an expert on the global energy system. Russia continues to sell oil, but it plays an ever smaller role in shaping its price (which has fallen to its lowest level since before the start of the invasion). Although India and China will not be able to give up Russian oil — not even under pressure from the United States — Western sanctions have still pushed Russia into the shadow market, turning the country from a stabilizer into a “disrupter” of energy markets.

Dressed for disaster: Russian fashion retail collapses despite losing Western competition

Contrary to the optimistic forecasts of 2022, the mass departure of international brands did not lead to rapid growth among Russian clothing manufacturers. Intensifying fiscal pressure and widespread uncertainty, rising prices for raw materials and accessories, competition from China, and an overall decline in demand (in 2025, shoppers were unmoved even by Black Friday) have combined to doom the sector. True, there are isolated success stories among premium brands, but the mass market is represented mostly by retail operators importing foreign goods. This is not import substitution, but import placement, fashion historian Alexander Vasiliev notes.

Running out of road. Stagflation is hitting Russia’s war economy as sanctions take their toll on economic growth and price stability

Vladimir Putin inspects a newly manufactured Lada during a visit to the AvtoVAZ car plant in Togliatti on 28 January 2025. Photo: EPA/GRIGORY SYSOEV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL

Putin’s polycrisis. The war won’t end until the West strengthens sanctions, better arms Kyiv and incentivises a Russian brain drain

Vladimir Putin visits the St. Peter and Paul Cathedral in St. Petersburg, Russia, 7 October 2025. Photo: EPA / MIKHAIL METZEL / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN

Death and taxes. Will raising VAT to 22% be enough to maintain Russia’s vast military spending?

Russian servicemen at a Victory Day parade on Red Square in Moscow, 9 May 2025. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP Photo / Scanpix / LETA

Stalling growth, falling oil prices, and the civilian sector sacrificed Meduza’s top five takeaways on the Russian economy heading into 2026

The state of Russia’s economy has been one of the most difficult topics to assess during the wartime period. Contrary to apocalyptic forecasts by experts, the country weathered the sanctions shock of 2022 and even returned to economic growth — driven largely by ballooning military spending, but also by high energy prices and, in some cases, a successful reconfiguration of disrupted supply chains. Those buffers, however, were not unlimited. By 2025, accumulated risks had reached a critical point. Growth has all but stalled, oil prices have fallen, and the Kremlin is finding itself increasingly short on funds to finance its war in Ukraine. The government has turned to unpopular measures, including higher taxes on businesses and households. Even so, the economy is not yet on the brink of collapse. Meduza lays out five key takeaways from the past year — and the trends that could shape developments in 2026.